Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.803142 3.860923 5.380077 7.804210 1.174320e+01 1.822209e+01 30.477279
2025-03-02 1.643129 2.579000 4.181645 7.354972 1.414223e+01 2.998766e+01 78.616083
2025-03-09 1.173465 2.061431 3.842118 8.190184 2.068479e+01 6.561907e+01 356.204703
2025-03-16 0.860526 1.658547 3.489866 8.912216 2.998098e+01 1.576502e+02 3129.726110
2025-03-23 0.666677 1.397022 3.297832 10.124489 4.731932e+01 5.129483e+02 502870.403477
2025-03-30 0.524067 1.179235 3.083884 11.286984 7.530755e+01 2.337347e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.395376 0.933453 2.622285 10.932070 9.805949e+01 1.058429e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 0.299475 0.732639 2.173102 10.044476 1.166131e+02 6.487230e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.248194 0.636029 2.028842 10.835332 1.881883e+02 1.274946e+08 NaN
2025-04-27 0.216127 0.582738 2.017919 12.808273 3.900608e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.191555 0.542368 2.037650 15.523138 9.739697e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.166050 0.487508 1.948923 17.202215 2.222017e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.137437 0.412499 1.713825 16.637373 3.766724e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.112857 0.343371 1.461388 15.080260 5.159246e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.099618 0.312520 1.405240 16.751030 1.925402e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.087947 0.283226 1.336000 18.165249 1.033287e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.079308 0.262915 1.309035 20.793641 4.131421e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.071538 0.243230 1.270613 23.336360 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.062354 0.214098 1.139765 22.205238 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.053976 0.186043 0.997766 19.899042 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.049222 0.172873 0.961691 21.590151 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.046185 0.166535 0.975999 26.143163 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.043694 0.161890 1.002230 32.683736 NaN NaN NaN